Can Trinidad & Tobago Engineer an Energy Comeback?
Key Takeaways
Trinidad's Decline: After peaking in the mid-2000s, T&T's energy sector entered a sustained decline beginning in 2010, with natural gas production falling for over 15 consecutive years due to maturing fields, underinvestment, and the Petrotrin refinery crisis.
Long-Term Project Sustainability: While the 2027 surge provides initial momentum, sustained output through 2030 and beyond depends on parallel investments including the Aphrodite (~3.1 million m³/day) and Manatee (~16.5 million m³/day) projects.
T&T Strategic Edge: Trinidad retains two distinct advantages over emerging producers, mature infrastructure (LNG plants, pipelines, processing facilities) and deep energy legacy (institutional knowledge and regulatory frameworks), allowing faster scaling without multi-year lead times.
Challenges and Risks: Execution delays, domestic governance (Petrotrin cautionary tale), geopolitical volatility (U.S. sanctions, Venezuelan political stability), and the global energy transition toward renewables threaten the sustainability of this recovery.
Philippe Jackson is a Partner and Political Risk Advisor for Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago.
After a decade defined by declining reserves, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the fallout from the Petrotrin refinery crisis, Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stands at a critical juncture. The nation is currently signalling a bold pivot: a synchronised surge in natural gas production aimed at reclaiming its status as a premier energy supplier in the Caribbean.
The central question is no longer if T&T can recover, but whether this 2027 projection represents a sustainable resurgence or merely a temporary rebound before structural headwinds return.
The 2027 Inflection Point: A Synchronised Surge
The core of T&T's strategy relies on the convergence of multiple large-scale upstream projects scheduled to come online simultaneously in 2027. This "perfect storm" of development involves major international energy players, most notably BP and Shell, aiming to reverse years of output decline.
Key Production Targets
Peak Capacity: The combined development targets an average production capacity of approximately 10.5 million cubic metres per day (Caribbean Insight – Volume 48, Issue 6).
Infrastructure Leverage: A critical component of this strategy is the "tie-back" model, connecting new wells to existing infrastructure like the Mahogany B platform. This approach significantly reduces capital expenditure and accelerates time-to-market compared to greenfield developments.
Immediate Gains: BP's infill drilling program alone is projected to deliver an estimated 3 billion cubic metres of natural gas, with first gas expected in 2027.
Sustaining the Momentum Beyond 2027
While the 2027 surge provides the initial lift, long-term viability depends on parallel investments designed to sustain output through 2030 and beyond:
Aphrodite Project: Projected to contribute ~3.1 million cubic metres/day at peak.
Manatee Project: With a potential output of up to 16.5 million cubic metres/day, this project is pivotal for maintaining T&T's export capacity.
The Strategic Edge: Why Trinidad?
Despite global shifts away from fossil fuels and regional competition, T&T retains two distinct advantages that emerging producers lack:
Mature Infrastructure: Decades of investment have left T&T with a robust network of LNG liquefaction plants, pipelines, and processing facilities. This allows for rapid scaling of production without the multi-year lead times required for building new export terminals.
Deep Energy Legacy: As a historic energy leader, T&T possesses the institutional knowledge and regulatory frameworks necessary to manage complex upstream operations, even if recent governance issues have caused friction.
The Geopolitical Variable: The Venezuela Factor
Perhaps the most transformative element of T&T's comeback plan is the potential reactivation of cross-border energy partnerships with Venezuela.
Resurrecting the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina Fields
Joint ventures between Shell and Trinidad's National Gas Company (NGC) regarding the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina fields were previously suspended due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuela. However, shifting geopolitical dynamics, including the tightening of sanctions prior to political shifts in Caracas and the subsequent removal of President Maduro, have reopened the door.
Projected Timeline: Production is now anticipated to begin in Q4 2027.
Output Potential: These fields could yield approximately 10 million cubic metres per day.
Strategic Necessity: T&T cannot rely solely on domestic reserves for long-term affordability. Accessing Venezuelan gas is framed not just as an economic opportunity, but as a necessity for securing cost-effective supply to feed existing LNG trains.
Regional Integration: A Caribbean Energy Hub
The Caribbean has a unique window to position itself as a reliable alternative to Middle Eastern energy reserves, driven by instability in the Gulf region. However, no single nation can achieve this alone.
Guyana & Suriname: While Guyana is already a major oil producer, its future gas potential and Suriname's emerging status create a regional ecosystem. T&T could benefit from excess gas flows from these neighbours, utilising its superior processing infrastructure.
Logistics Synergy: Suriname's future reliance on Guyana's deep-water ports and future Berbice and T&T gas processing plants suggests a move toward integrated regional logistics.
Economic Impact: High global energy prices, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, have already boosted T&T's revenues by an estimated $4 million per month, according to Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal.
The current landscape is defined by a critical mutual dependency. Trinidad and Tobago must secure long-term, affordable gas supplies from Venezuela and emerging neighbours like Guyana and Suriname to sustain its operations. Conversely, these nations require T&T's established processing infrastructure to commercialise their output while they develop domestic capacity. This strategic alliance positions the Caribbean not merely as a stopgap for immediate global LNG demand, but as a durable, long-term alternative supply chain to the volatile Middle Eastern markets.
Challenges and Risks
Despite the optimistic outlook, the path to a sustained comeback is fraught with obstacles:
Execution Risk: The 2027 target requires flawless coordination among multiple international partners. Delays in one project could cascade, undermining the "synchronised" nature of the surge.
Domestic Governance: Past mismanagement, particularly regarding Petrotrin, remains a cautionary tale. The success of the proposed Energy Accelerator Hub, designed to streamline approvals and boost local content participation, will be a litmus test for the government's ability to foster a stable investment climate.
Geopolitical Volatility: The reopening of Venezuelan fields hinges on the stability of the political transition in Caracas and the continued flexibility of U.S. sanctions policy. Any regression could stall these critical projects.
Global Energy Transition: While demand for gas remains strong in the short term, the long-term trajectory of global energy policy toward renewables poses a risk to the viability of massive gas infrastructure investments made today.
A Race Against Time
Trinidad and Tobago, who’s economy has historically massively relied on the energy sector (40% of GDP & 80% of Exports) is undeniably poised for a significant revival. The alignment of major projects, the potential reintegration of Venezuelan reserves, and the strategic advantage of existing infrastructure create a compelling case for a 2027 turnaround.
However, this is not a guaranteed victory. The sustainability of this recovery depends on continued foreign investment, the government's ability to execute efficiently, navigate complex domestic politics, and maintain diplomatic agility in a volatile global landscape. If successful, T&T could reassert itself as the anchor of regional energy security; if not, the window of opportunity may close as quickly as it opened.
