Venezuela Macro Report Q3 2026

The third quarter has seen the dust settle over various political and economic processes, which have also slowed down with the pretext of the June 24 double earthquake. For example, the selection of a new Supreme Court began in May but is dragging on until at least December; debt restructuring was meant to start in June but has fallen off the main agenda; and oil production is stagnating after recovering from a first-quarter slump.

Following on from the second quarter, the Trump administration has continued to double down on its support for Interim President Delcy Rodríguez and the new oil agreements, including an unprecedented deal with North American Blue Energy Partners, a private firm controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt. However, many recent upstream contracts have been signed with companies that lack the capital or experience to boost output sufficiently, prompting conservative forecasts.

The sitting National Assembly has been relegated to a secondary role, processing bills at a sluggish pace compared with the first half of the year. Three proposed laws from that period, notably the one that would overhaul the power grid, have been carried over indefinitely. Instead, negotiations with the opposition delegation known as the National Assembly of 2015, guided by the U.S., are driving reform.

Despite the slowdown on various fronts, Venezuela is still unquestionably moving away from the system that governed it last year, with changes across its key institutions. Most importantly, as discussed in the previous quarterly report, the U.S. has shown that it is here to stay, preventing a possible snapback.

Short-term developments to watch include the possibility of political instability after María Corina Machado’s return, combined with discontent over failing public services and stagnant incomes; how well the new oil agreements perform; and whether a debt restructuring proposal will emerge over the next quarter, which still seems unlikely.