Venezuela Macro Report | Q2 2026
Macro Report | The second quarter of 2026 has shown a strengthening of the new relationship between the governments of President Donald Trump and Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, especially after the twin earthquakes hit Venezuela on June 24. The trend reflects a U.S. strategy that seeks control and deepening influence rather than regime change, contrary to the view held by many analysts.
The macroeconomic outlook has improved throughout the first half of the year, though it has shattered expectations of faster growth and lower inflation. While nominal oil revenues have increased, the speed at which they pass through U.S. Treasury accounts and land in Venezuela has played a determining factor in the complex foreign exchange market: a significant gap between the various dollar-bolivar rates persisted throughout the second quarter. The seismic events have upended initial economic forecasts, causing around $10 billion in damages, while the reconstruction remains uncertain.
Oil output has not only recovered from last year’s stricter sanctions and tanker blockade; it has also reached new highs since 2019 and could be on track to reach 1.3 million barrels per day by year-end and over 1.6 million by late 2027—these estimates exclude imported diluents.
Under the auspices of the Trump administration, Caracas and Centerview Partners tried to rush through a restructuring deal, allegedly preparing to present a higher-than-expected debt pile of $240 billion. This aggressiveness could provoke pushback and drag out negotiations, while risking future litigation from creditors.
Meanwhile, the ruling-party-controlled National Assembly has continued to hastily pass reforms focused on two areas: opening strategic industries in collaboration with U.S. interests and cementing a new political support base internally.
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Macro Report | The second quarter of 2026 has shown a strengthening of the new relationship between the governments of President Donald Trump and Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, especially after the twin earthquakes hit Venezuela on June 24. The trend reflects a U.S. strategy that seeks control and deepening influence rather than regime change, contrary to the view held by many analysts.
The macroeconomic outlook has improved throughout the first half of the year, though it has shattered expectations of faster growth and lower inflation. While nominal oil revenues have increased, the speed at which they pass through U.S. Treasury accounts and land in Venezuela has played a determining factor in the complex foreign exchange market: a significant gap between the various dollar-bolivar rates persisted throughout the second quarter. The seismic events have upended initial economic forecasts, causing around $10 billion in damages, while the reconstruction remains uncertain.
Oil output has not only recovered from last year’s stricter sanctions and tanker blockade; it has also reached new highs since 2019 and could be on track to reach 1.3 million barrels per day by year-end and over 1.6 million by late 2027—these estimates exclude imported diluents.
Under the auspices of the Trump administration, Caracas and Centerview Partners tried to rush through a restructuring deal, allegedly preparing to present a higher-than-expected debt pile of $240 billion. This aggressiveness could provoke pushback and drag out negotiations, while risking future litigation from creditors.
Meanwhile, the ruling-party-controlled National Assembly has continued to hastily pass reforms focused on two areas: opening strategic industries in collaboration with U.S. interests and cementing a new internal political support base.
Political developments and scenarios.
Political risk scenarios up to 2028.
Macroeconomic overview.
Impact of the earthquakes.
Macro indicators.
Gross Domestic Product and growth.
Reserves and balance of payments.
Foreign exchange and inflation.
Oil industry overview.
Avalanche of MOUs.
Production and exports.
Restructuring and Reforms.
Restructuring.
National Assembly reviews 11 bills in 6 months.
Mining: Introducing the private concession.
Power generation overhaul.
Agricultural bills to build up rural support.
