Venezuela: The irreversible thesis
Executive summary
January 3, 2026, marks a Zeitenwende for Venezuela, a historical turning point where what happened before that date often has little impact on what comes after. It has kick-started a process that, while uncertain, appears irreversible. Both foreign and internal forces are dismantling an authoritarian regime, resulting in greater freedoms, closer ties to the West, and accelerated economic growth. A key defining factor is Washington, DC, which is building up a long-term presence in Venezuela. The process can be compared to Vietnam’s rapprochement with the U.S. in the late 1990s, where shifting international allegiances helped lead to fast economic growth and development.
The political process creates the conditions for rapid economic growth, essentially a partial recovery toward the previous peak. In a positive scenario, by 2033 Venezuela’s GDP could double to $233.6 billion, still shy of the $372.6 billion in 2012. The main driver would be oil exports, while different industries are also opening up to investment, and have caught the attention of the U.S. as strategic assets. Other factors such as geography, demographics, and overseas savings will also play a role in boosting growth.
The resulting growth will trickle down unevenly, given Venezuela’s wealth and income distributions across classes and regions. The foremost winner will likely be a booming middle and upper class, particularly on the Eastern side of Caracas. This group is surprisingly large for Latin America, with 1.26 million adults or 6.5% of the population, with household wealth between $100,000 and $1 million. They also particularly value branded luxury products, given social and cultural norms. We therefore expect Las Mercedes, a high-end commercial area, to boom thanks to the political and economic processes.
